پژوهشهای ژئومورفولوژی کمّی

پژوهشهای ژئومورفولوژی کمّی

بررسی و پایش محدوده‌های زایش گردوغبار و پیش‌بینی بیابان‌زایی در استان واسط عراق با استفاده از تحلیل سری زمانی (2005 تا 2030 )

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز
2 گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی ،دانشگاه تبریز
3 گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی ،دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی ،دانشگاه تبریز
10.22034/gmpj.2025.510717.1550
چکیده
به دلیل اهمیت محققان سعی کرده اندپژوهش‌های خود را به این محدوده ها متمرکز کنند. در سطح دنیا بعضی ازکشورها درگیر تغییرات محیطی شدی هستند ومحدوده‌های تحت بیابانی شدن تقریباً 35 % از سطح زمین و 32 % ازکل جمعیت انسانی را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد.کشور عراق در بین سایر کشورهای خاورمیانه امروزه به لحاظ تغییرات محیطی و بیابانی شدن ،به عمده‌ترین محدوده زایش گردو غبار تبدیل شده است که دربخشی ازسال، کشور ایران نیز از آن بی‌بهره نمی‌ماند.با عنایت به اهمیت توجه به موضوع بیابانی شدن در کشورعراق،در پژوهش حاضر با هدف پایش محدوده‌های تحت بیابان‌زائی در استان الواسط از شاخص بیابان‌زائی Albedo و TGSI مستخرج از پروداکت‌های سنجنده مودیس برای سال‌های 1384 تا 1402 ( 2005 تا 2023 )استفاده شده و با مدل آریما در تحلیل سری زمانی برای سال 1402( 2023)روندیابی شد. در محیط گوگل ارث انجین شاخص‌های بکارگرفته شده برای دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1402(2005 تا 2023) با کد نویسی دربرنامه های کامپیوتری تولید شدند. پس از بی‌مقیاس سازی فازی شاخص‌ها و با جمع جبری شاخص‌های پژوهش، شاخص بیابان زائی(DI) تولید شد. برای تحلیل سری زمانی بر روی لایه‌های رستری از کتابخانه‌های مربوط به تحلیل سری زمانی و تحلیل رستری در محیط نرم افزاری R استفاده شد.بررسی یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که در سال های مختلف گستره محدوده های تحت بیابان زایی تغییر یافته و در استان مورد مطالعه گسترش قابل ملاحظه بوده است و با توجه به روند فعلی بیابان‌زائی، درصورتیکه مدیریت و کنترل بعمل نیاید،ادامه خواهد داشت. بخش‌های مهمی از مناطق شمالی، شمال شرقی و مرکزی استان الواسط درگیر پدیده بیابان‌زائی هستند.تشدید این روند اثرات و پیامدهای مختلفی مثل ریزگردها را در پی داشته باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Investigation and Monitoring dust generation ranges and forecasting desertification in Iraq's Wasit province using time series analysis (2005 to 2030)

نویسندگان English

maryam bayatikhatibi 1
hala Abdulkarim 2
bachtiar fezizadeh 3
1 Department of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, Faculty of planning and environmenta Sciences, University of Tabriz Name, City name, Iran
2 Department of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, Faculty of planning and environmenta Sciences, University of Tabriz Name, City name, Iran.
3 Department of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, Faculty of planning and environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz Name, City name, Iran.
چکیده English

Because of this importance, researchers have tried to focus their research on these areas. Worldwide, some countries are experiencing severe environmental changes, and areas under desertification affect approximately 35% of the Earth's surface and 32% of the total human population. Among other countries in the Middle East, Iraq has become the most important dust-producing area due to environmental changes and desertification, and during part of the year, Iran is also affected. Given the importance of paying attention to the issue of desertification in Iraq, in the present study, with the aim of monitoring areas under desertification in Al-Wasit province, the Albedo and TGSI desertification indices extracted from MODIS sensor products for the years 1384 to 1402 (2005 to 2023) were used and trended using the ARIMA model in time series analysis for the year 1402 (2023). In the Google Earth Engine environment, the indices used for the period 1384 to 1402 (2005 to 2023) were produced by coding in computer programs. After fuzzy descaling of the indices and algebraic summation of the research indices, the desertification index (DI) was generated. For time series analysis on raster layers, libraries related to time series analysis and raster analysis were used in the R software environment. The study findings show that the extent of areas subject to desertification has changed in different years and has expanded significantly in the province under study, and given the current trend of desertification, it will continue if not managed and controlled. Important parts of the northern, northeastern and central regions of Al-Wasit province are involved in the phenomenon of desertification. The intensification of this trend will have various effects and consequences, such as dust.Desertification, which is the process of land destruction in dry, semi-arid and semi-humid areas, can lead to the loss of biological and economic productivity, and ultimately biodiversity and dust generation. This process affects approximately 35% of the earth's surface and 32% of the total human population( 8). Desertification is caused by a combination of climate fluctuations and human activities; Climate factors: Drought and climate change intensify desertification by reducing water availability and changing precipitation patterns. Human activities: excessive cultivation, deforestation, excessive livestock grazing, inappropriate irrigation practices and unsustainable land management are among the main factors(7). Desertification is recognized as an important environmental challenge that affects ecosystem services, food security, and social well-being. This phenomenon is mainly caused by changes in land use and land cover, removal of natural plant cover. In fact, desertification is a complex phenomenon and occurs in different temporal and spatial scales, and each geographical area can have its own unique factors. There are different global experiences regarding confronting and identifying this phenomenon(4). For example, in China, extensive efforts have been made, including government policies and desertification control programs, which have led to the reversal of the expansion of desert lands(4). In Iran, despite various political measures, desertification caused by meteorological drought and excessive use of water remains a serious issue. Also, in Central Asia, the phenomenon of desertification has intensified again since the 2010s . Since dry areas are often affected by rapid soil erosion, land degradation, and desertification, continuous monitoring of land use and land cover changes is necessary, and remote sensing images are valuable resources for extraction due to having continuous spatial information and time series. Time patterns are the process of changes and monitoring of this phenomenon. Until now, various remote sensing indicators have been developed and used to investigate and evaluate the process of desertification and land degradation.The indices obtained from the spectral information of satellite images have various advantages in the study of phenomena such as desertification. While most of the previous researches used the NDVI index to study vegetation changes in the study of Desertification, this research, like the researches (9,10,11)used the TGSI index, which indicates the size of the soil. It is used superficially. Like other researches, the use of several important indicators in the phenomenon of desertification can identify the areas at risk of this phenomenon. Time series analysis with Arima in the R software environment can provide quick and easy monitoring of desertification phenomenon. According to the findings in the figure (13-14, 15-16), the average trend of changes in the desertification index obtained in the studied years follows a completely non-linear pattern. So that during 2005 to 2007 this trend was increasing and from 2007 to 2009 it was decreasing and then it was increasing until 2010 and then decreasing in 2011 to 2012 and then it was increasing until 2014. In general, the analysis of changes in this index shows that compared to 2005, this index has increased. The lowest value of this index is 0.72 in 2012 and the highest value is 1.44 in 2023. The intensity of desertification in the northern areas of the Tigris River and the northern and northeastern parts of this province during the studied period is high. Desertification is one of the most well-known environmental challenges in today's world. The existence of this phenomenon not only emphasizes the necessity of studying it, but also requires appropriate and available tools to monitor and control it. Various researches have dealt with the monitoring and monitoring of Desertification, in line with the previous researches, this study also aimed to provide a simple and fast tool for monitoring the Desertification in Al-Wasit province of Iraq. And by examining the background of the research, he used two indices, Albedo and TGSI. In order to monitor and predict the desertification phenomenon, Arima model was used in time series analysis. R software environment was used to implement the model. The findings of the research show that the phenomenon of desertification in the north, northeast and parts of the center of this province is considered a serious problem and this process will continue until 2030, which requires optimal planning and management.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Desertification
Albedo
TGSI
ARIMA
Time Series
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